Global Production & Supply-Demand Summary
In 2025, the global processed tomato supplyis expected to decline sharply to approximately 40.5 million metric tons, down by over 11% from the record-breaking 45.7 million tons in 2024. The reduction is driven by deliberate cuts in major producing countries, primarily China and California, in response to a 2024 oversupply and declining farm-gate prices. However, inventories built up in 2023–2024 remain high in many regions, particularly in the United States and Europe. As a result, global supply remains adequate, with a gradual return toward a more balanced market.
Northern Hemisphere countries are leadingthe production cuts, while the Southern Hemisphere remains relatively stable. Demand for tomato paste and derivative products is growing steadily at around
2–3% annually. The overall market outlook for 2025 suggests that the industry is entering a rebalancing phase, and buyers can expect better supply predictability and manageable pricing.
Major Exporting Countries: 2025 Outlook
China
2025 forecasted production: 6 million tons (down 42% YoY)
- 2024 production: ~10.5 million tons (record high)
- Export strength: Remains the world’s largest tomato paste exporter (~1.2 million tons in 2024)
- Key dynamics:
- Massive 2024 oversupply led to price collapse and grower disincentives.
- Processing capacity remains strong, but many factories may idle in 2025.
- Despite lower output, China continues to offer the lowest global FOB prices (~$900/ton for bulk).
- Exporters likely to prioritize inventory clearance and maintain aggressive pricing early in the season.
Italy
2024 production: ~5.25 million tons (below initial plan due to floods in the North)
- 2025 outlook: Slight reduction in contracted volumes anticipated
- Export share: Second-largest global exporter, strong in value-added and premium segments
- Key dynamics:
- Stable southern crop in 2024 offset northern shortfalls.
- European inflation and energy costs eased somewhat, improving processor margins.
- Close proximity to EU markets gives Italy a logisticsbadvantage.
- Likely to remain a reliable but slightly more expensive supplier than China or Turkey.
Spain
2024 production: ~3.06 million tons (high yields in Extremadura)
- 2025 forecast: Targeting ~2.4 million tons (intentional reduction to prevent oversupply)
- Export position: Major supplier to EU, Africa, and the Middle East
- Key dynamics:
- Shorter transit times and stable pricing support demand in neighboring regions.
- High irrigation costs and potential drought risks are watchpoints.
- Solid option for buyers needing EU-origin paste with mid-tier pricing.
Turkey
2024 production: ~2.7 million tons (steady)
- 2025 outlook: Stable or slight reduction
- 2024 export volume: ~177,000 tons (up 4% YoY)
- Key dynamics:
- Competitive pricing due to currency devaluation and government support.
- Low Brix in 2024 crop increased per-ton processing cost, pressuring margins.
- Export-friendly for MENA, Europe, and parts of Asia due to geographic proximity.
- Policy risks (e.g. potential export controls) require monitoring.
Global Production & Trade Trends (2022–2024)
- 2022 was marked by droughts and shortages, triggering tight supply and soaring prices.
- 2023–2024 saw production recovery and overcompensation, leading to high inventories.
- 2025 marks the beginning of a rebalancing cycle, as producers scale back.
Price Trends & 2025 Outlook
- 2022–2023: Prices surged across all regions; spot bulk paste reached $1,800–2,200/ton FOB.
- 2024: Prices softened due to oversupply. Chinese paste FOB bulk: ~900/ton; Europe: €1,100–1,200/ton; U.S.: 1,200–1,300/ton.
- 2025 projection:
- Stable to mildly increasing prices, as supply tightens but inventories remain high.
- Risk of volatility persists if summer weather negatively impacts production in Europe or North America.
- Freight costs and tariffs (e.g. 25% U.S. tariff on Chinese paste) will continue influencing delivered prices.
Procurement Recommendations for Buyers
Diversify Supplier Base
- Combine low-cost origins (e.g., China, Turkey) with premium or regional suppliers (Italy, Spain).
- Mitigates risk from weather, policy, or logistics disruptions.
Use Forward Contracts Strategically
- Secure 50–70% of your annual volume through forward deals at current rates.
- Retain flexibility for opportunistic spot buying if prices decline.
Maintain Safety Stock Without Overextending
- Avoid overstocking, especially with high interest rates in 2025.
- Maintain 2–3 months of inventory as buffer; rotate stock efficiently.
Monitor Key Indicators
- Track weather in California, Italy, Xinjiang.
- Watch for WPTC and USDA updates, freight cost shifts, and trade policy changes.
Engage with Suppliers Early
- Build supplier trust and negotiate flexible terms (volume add-ons, delivery windows).
- Consider emerging suppliers in Portugal, Greece, or non-traditional origins for added agility.
Conclusion
2025 offers buyers a window of opportunity: supply is still sufficient, prices are reasonable, and forward visibility is improving. By acting early, securing a balanced sourcing portfolio, and managing logistics strategically, international buyers can optimize procurement and reduce risk in a stabilizing global tomato paste market.