Introduction
As we progress through 2025, the global canned pineapple market is entering a new era of complexity and volatility. After years of relative stability, the supply landscape has shifted due to persistent climate risks, changing production patterns, and rapidly evolving international demand. For procurement managers and sourcing teams in retail, food service, and industrial manufacturing, understanding the latest trends and building agile strategies is now more crucial than ever.
Key Production Regions
Thailand: Recovery Stalled by Drought
- Supply Situation: Once the world’s dominant exporter, Thailand has been hit hard by severe drought and heatwaves, driven by the El Niño phenomenon. Production for the 2024–2025 season is projected at just 710,000–830,000 tons—well below historical averages.
- Outlook: Even with aggressive replanting, full recovery is not expected before 2026. Raw material shortages have driven farm-gate prices to multi-year highs, and processor capacity remains underutilized.
Indonesia: The Emerging Stabilizer
- Supply Situation: Despite some regional drought effects, Indonesia continues to maintain stable production thanks to large-scale, vertically integrated plantations (notably Great Giant Pineapple in Lampung province).
- Outlook: Indonesia is increasingly relied upon as a global “buffer” supplier, though peak season supply is limited and competition for fruit is increasing as global buyers diversify away from Thailand.
Philippines: Resilient but Not Unlimited
- Supply Situation: The Philippines’ main pineapple regions have proven resilient to climate shocks, with 2025 output estimated at over 3.1 million tons. Large players (Dole, Del Monte) continue to deliver stable exports.
- Outlook: Export volumes to China, Japan, and the U.S. are robust, but local weather risks and strong internal demand can limit additional availability for spot or short-term buyers.
Vietnam: Fast Growth, Still Supplementary
- Supply Situation: Vietnam’s pineapple sector has shown rapid export growth (up over 180% in 2024), yet total volumes remain relatively small (around 800,000 tons for 2025).
- Outlook: Best suited as a supplementary source, particularly for buyers seeking flexibility and alternative supplier options during global shortages.
Kenya: Africa’s Steady Supplier
- Supply Situation: Kenya’s pineapple output is set to reach 300,000–400,000 tons in 2025. Leading processors like Del Monte Kenya operate year-round, with production peaks following the rainy seasons.
- Outlook: Kenya is emerging as a critical “off-season” supplier for Europe and the Middle East, offering year-round availability and solid supply chain resilience.
2025–2026: Supply-Demand Balance and Market Risks
Will Global Supply Remain Tight?
- Key Trends: The world’s leading producers—especially Thailand—are unlikely to fully recover in 2025. While Indonesia and the Philippines offer stable output, their ability to increase exports is not unlimited.
- Newcomers: Vietnam and Kenya are growing quickly but cannot yet replace Thai or Filipino volumes.
- Structural Imbalance: Any new climate shocks (drought, storms) in Southeast Asia could push the market back into acute shortage, especially for premium-quality fruit.
Price Outlook: Elevated and Volatile
- Raw Material: Farm-gate prices in Asia remain near record highs. High-quality fruit commands a premium, and competition between processors is intense.
- FOB Prices: Export prices for canned pineapple have stabilized at 1,200–1,250/MT FOB in early 2025—up over 10% from pre-pandemic levels.
- Volatility Risk: Spot prices can spike further during supply disruptions, and downward corrections will likely require at least two consecutive seasons of surplus production—something the current climate does not favor.
- Sourcing and Procurement Strategies for 2025–20266
- Diversify Supplier Base: Relying on a single origin is increasingly risky. Building relationships in Indonesia, Vietnam, and Kenya can help mitigate disruptions.
- Lock in Volume Early: Secure contracts with core suppliers during (or even before) main crop seasons—typically 2–3 months ahead of peak production.
- Flexible Price Mechanisms: Consider index-linked or profit-sharing pricing to share market risk, rather than fixed or spot-only contracts.
- Monitor Climate and Logistics: Use real-time weather and logistics monitoring (e.g., WMO, NOAA updates) to anticipate disruptions and adjust inventories proactively.
- Collaborate Internally: Align procurement plans with downstream teams (sales, product development, operations) to manage cost and supply chain expectations.
Production Season Calendar Snapshot
Conclusion
The 2025–2026 canned pineapple market will remain defined by tight balance, high prices, and significant volatility. For B2B procurement professionals, the winners will be those who plan early, build a robust and diverse supplier network, and stay agile to respond to climate and supply chain disruptions.
Stay proactive. Monitor the weather. Diversify your risk. In today’s global fruit supply chain, agility and foresight are your best allies.